Saturday, 8 May 2010

A Matter of Accuracy

The Telegraph's results list is a little bit off the mark. According to their website, in Manchester Central apparently Labour lost to an independent candidate, but to outweigh that shock it was reported that Labour took Manchester Withington from the Lib Dems.


I can assure you both of these results are wrong. Labour held on in Central with Tony Lloyd scraping in with a majority of 10,439 - and that was to the Lib Dems (the independent candidate got just 120 votes). In Withington, John Leech retained the seat for the Lib Dems with a 1,850 majority.

The Withington result was perhaps a simple error, but the independent taking Central should have rang alarm bells to check that was the correct result.

Telegraph fail!

JR

Friday, 7 May 2010

And The Winner Is ...

Nobody. The general election has resulted in a hung parliament.

When BBC News went out to do their post-election vox pops, the public were understandably nervious about what might happen. They're uncertain about who is going to be their government at exactly the time they need strong leadership.

The Lib Dems couldn't live up to their expectations. They lost ground on their 2005 position, mainly because of some wild swings in a few seats, but they didn't look like making a significant breakthrough as the results started coming in.

Ironically they could be the the ones that gain the most from this uncertainty. They look to be entering into a confidence and supply pact with the Conservatives. Such an arrangement isn't a formal coalition, but an agreement to not vote against the government in votes of confidence (such as the Queen's Speech) and votes of supply (such as the budget), in return for concessions on certain policies. How long this arrangement could last is anyone's guess.

The Conservatives only require Lib Dems to abstain on these votes for this to work, as if you take out the Lib Dem seats then the Tories have enough votes to carry their motions. Labour don't have that luxury; they would require the Liberals to vote with them to carry the motions (and a few friendly votes from the smaller parties too).

Is this situation tenable, or are we to do this all again in the next twelve months?

JR

Monday, 3 May 2010

A Contract for Change

In the style of the previous PEB, here is the Conservatives final election video. It sets out a contract between the Conservative Party and every single one of the British people;



JR