Vote Clegg, Get Brown

It's a weird thing, these opinion polls. They tell you so much, but yet so little all at the same time.

Today's poll by YouGov for the Sun has the Conservatives on 33%, Labour on 28%, and the Lib Dems rocketing up to 30%. However, despite Labour being in third place they would still be the largest party (in a hung parliament) when these figures are fed into a uniform swing calculation. The Conservatives would be around 10-20 seats further back and the Lib Dems another 120 seats away!

Effectively what you have is if you vote Clegg you get Brown.

Of course there isn't really such a thing as uniform swing, and a number of local factors could see the Conservatives as the largest party, even on these national shares of the vote; but there's still two more debates and the best part of three weeks of campaigning before polling day.

JR