Who Was Cameron Talking To?

Yesterday David Cameron said that there were "a lot less disagreement than there used to be" between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, whist in the same paragraph asserting that "a hung parliament would be bad for Britain".

The media made out that Cameron was attempting to woo the Lib Dems after speculation of the possibility of a hung parliament after the next election, but I believe that he was targeting Lib Dem voters directly. Remember, the Conservatives require to take seats off the Lib Dems to gain a majority in the next parliament, so they need Lib Dem voters to switch to the Tories as well as Labour voters.

This is no better illustrated than by the parliamentary constituencies in the South West of England. On the right there is a map of the seats to be fought at the next election with the (notional) party that currently holds the seat indicated by colour.

This is prime Lib Dem/Conservative marginal territory. There are 18 Lib Dem held seats in the region and 8 of them would need a swing of just 5% (from LD to Cons) for them to turn blue. A further 8 would be taken by the Tories if there was a 9% swing.

The Liberal Democrats were quick to slap down Cameron's comments, hoping to reassure Lib Dem supporters who would be fearful of an alliance with the Tories should the election not produce an overall majority for any one party. The thing is that Cameron knew that would be the reaction from the Liberal offices and was exactly what he wanted. Such a reaction will put off voters switching from Tory to Lib Dem, but much less likely to stop those Lib Dem voters thinking of changing to the Conservatives.

The election campaigns need to open and honest to restore trust in parliament. By drawing fake political dividing lines parliament's reputation is damaged further. Excessive negative campaigning only benefits extremest parties, such as the BNP, who gain votes from those who are disillusioned by the main parties. The BNP gaining a seat because of petty smears and insults would be good for nobody.

Cameron called for a "good clean fight" at the next election. This positive message is one I intend to take to the doorsteps of voters, and I hope others do too. Having said that, the general election is a choice between the Conservatives and Labour. The Lib Dems can't win here!

JR

Merry Christmas

Just a quick post to wish everyone a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy and Peaceful New Year!


JR

Class War Doesn't Wash With Me

I've recently been told that I'm a Tory Boy, which I can only assume to mean the stereotypical Harry Enfield character of a bit posh with quite a bit of money; a toff if you will. Anyone who knows me properly will know that I'm from a single parent family with a very low income and next to no savings. To put this in perspective, I now earn more as a student union officer then my mum does in her job.

I also live in Devon, and when I've just come back from the shire I've got a distinctly Devonian twang to my accent. My family are actually from the Manchester area - my mum was born in Rusholme, my grandad was a nurse at Hope Hospital in Salford, and my grandma was a matron at Manchester Royal Infirmary; they both worked for the NHS!

I went to my local state schools (primary and secondary) and Exeter College for my A-Levels (the one in Devon, not Cambridge Oxford)!

Class war really pisses me off. As you can probably tell I'm certainly not from the middle classes and resent being told that I am. I support the Conservatives because I absolutely hate debt. I'm in more debt from being a student then any of my family have at any time, but it's still less than my share of the country's debt. Government cannot continue to spend beyond it's means for much longer.

Labour say that the middle classes can't represent the poor because they don't know what it's like. I say it doesn't matter what your background is, you should be elected on your ability to govern without bankrupting the country.

Class war doesn't wash with me because Labour have hurt us all.

JR

I've Changed My Mind

I was going to write a disparaging blog post on certain Labour activists ... then I saw this and thought that life is too short.

I'll let matters rest there.

JR

Just a Downright Smear

I'm sure a lot of you know about the comedy twitter fight between the MP for Bristol East, Kerry McCarthy, and various Conservative supporters, especially Iain Dale, over the past week or so. McCarthy is Labour's twitter tsar.

I've broadly stayed out of the commotion until replying to a tweet by Manchester Labour Students (@manclabstudents) which read;

"I'm fed up with the Tories sending unelected and unaccountable troops out of the trenches" - @KerryMP

... quoting from an article on McCarthy's blog.

I replied with;

@manclabstudents If @KerryMP wants more elected Conservatives to talk to then I suggest she gets Gordon to call an election ASAP!

... which, as you can probably tell, was very tongue in cheek. I wasn't really expecting Kerry to convince the PM to go for an early election on the basis she'd have more Tory MPs to have a chat with.

I also wasn't expecting this little gem from McCarthy in return;


Woh! Sounds to me McCarthy was attempting an out and out smear on Conservative Party Chair, Eric Pickles, about him blacking up at some point.

Any benefit of the doubt I had for McCarthy before has very much evaporated now!

JR

UPDATE: An article has been brought to my attention about a Tory MP suggesting blacking up was viewed as racist because of political correctness. I don't agree with him, simply because it is usually done to cause offence, and therefore is racist. However, I'm not sure what Eric Pickles has got to do with it!

With thanks to Alex Ross, a Labour activist in Bradford, who very politely let me know what Kerry McCarthy was referring to. This is in contrast to the personal attacks I've received from others that really do put the Labour Party into disrepute (more in a blog post soon).

December Polling - Tories in Trouble?

Those with a phobia of statistics should look away now!

There's been a bit of talk about the possibility of a hung parliament in recent weeks. It stems from a few polls this month which show the Conservative lead down to single figures, whilst others show leads for the Tories in the high teens.

Does this show that the Tories are getting into trouble and might fail to get a majority at the next election?

Are Labour really on the road back to government?

Do the Liberal Democrats seriously believe anyone cares what they think?

I thought I'd take a closer look at this months polls to find out! Here are the polls from the month of December (source: UK Polling Report);

	Survey End Date	CON (%)	LAB (%)	LDEM (%)	Con Lead
YouGov/People	2009-12-18	40	28	18	12
Angus Reid/PoliticalBetting	2009-12-18	40	24	20	16
ICM/Guardian	2009-12-13	40	31	18	9
YouGov/Sunday Times	2009-12-11	40	31	16	9
BPIX/Mail on Sunday	2009-12-11	41	30	17	11
ComRes/Independent on Sunday	2009-12-10	41	24	21	17
Angus Reid/PoliticalBetting	2009-12-10	40	23	19	17
Populus/Times	2009-12-06	38	30	20	8
YouGov/Sunday Times	2009-12-04	40	27	18	13
ICM/Sunday Telegraph	2009-12-03	40	29	19	11

As you can see, the Conservative leads vary wildly from 8 to 17 percentage points, but this isn't due to huge differences in the reported Conservative support - it's held steady at 40% - instead the Labour and Lib Dem support hasn't been at all consistent. I think the first thing we can safely assume from these figures is that the Conservatives aren't losing (or gaining) voters.

On the other hand we don't know what's happening with Labour. They've had support reported as low as 23 and as high as 31, but this also broadly corresponds to a similar change in Lib Dem support where when the Labour numbers go up, the Lib Dems are down, and visa versa. This could be down to the methodology of the polling companies, but the polling has been so volatile that I think there has to be something else to explain it.

On the face of it, there's a lot of people who would usually vote Labour that are thinking of voting for the Lib Dems, perhaps as a protest vote, or perhaps because they want to keep the Tories out and are voting tactically, but they weren't sure and still might vote Labour out of principle; when asked by the pollsters who they would vote for, they might give the answer they felt like at the time. If that was the case, however, we probably would've seen these jumps going on for months.

There has also been a steady rise in the mean Labour support over the last quarter from mid 20s to high 20s. This would indicate a few more voters coming back to Labour, probably because they've stopped squabbling over whether they should remove Gordon Brown as leader. However, this time last year the same thing happened, Labour steadily gained on the run up to Christmas, but bombed again in the new year. This year the same might happen, but the difference is they're starting a further 6 points behind.

As it stands, the Conservatives haven't got too much to worry about. The polling average gives them a majority of around 50 seats, a good comfortable majority to govern with. Clearly the next few months are crucial, but Christmas can be enjoyed by the Tories in the knowledge that they have the head start in the new year.

JR

Stay Safe Over Christmas

From the MMUnion Sabbatical Officer Blog

As the Christmas holiday is approaching I know many of you will be furiously trying to complete assignments and essays for the end of term deadlines, but before you head back home take time to make sure you're not the victim of crime while you're away.

• Many burglaries happen when a door or window has been left open. Lock up whenever you go out, use the deadbolt, and put the alarm on (if you have one). Make sure all housemates follow the same rules.
• Use a light timer, they are cheap. You can set it will come on during the day or night when you are out to make the house looking occupied.
• In halls of residence, be careful who you let in or who follows you into the building. Lock your bedroom door even if you are only going down the corridor.
• If you buy expensive items, don't leave the empty boxes outside your house, rip them up and put the in the bin, or take them to your nearest recycling centre.
• Keep cards and chequebooks separately. Note down your card details so you can cancel them quickly.
• Protect yourself with insurance - keep lists of the make, model and serial numbers of your electronic items to help Police track them down if they are stolen. Take photographs of jewellery and other small valuable items.
• Keep your valuables out of sight of windows, especially if you have the downstairs room.
• Burglars tend to go for properties which look insecure, so try to make sure your property looks neat and tidy outside. Ask your landlord to sort this out.
• Speak to your local Crime Reduction Advisor or Community Safety Co-ordinator about security marking your property. Security marking makes it harder for thieves to sell stolen goods and can help the police to return items to you.
  
• Register your valuables, including your bike and mobile phone on www.immobilise.com
• When you go home for term breaks, take all of your valuables with you, or use safe storage space offered to you by your University. Contact your student union for more details.

More hints and tips are available at http://www.mcrstudentsafer.co.uk/

Have a great Christmas break and see you in the New Year.

JR

Putting It Beyond Doubt

Want to be an MP or a Lord? You're going to have to be a full UK taxpayer.

Dave tells it all ...





Glad that's been cleared up then.

JR

Cheer Up!

Labour might well be getting this country into the worst debt it's ever known, trying to buy the election with short term giveaways, and generally be incompetent, but Keep Right Online has found a little light relief in this simple poster from 1978.


There's now no more than 173 days until the election, and it can't come soon enough.

JR

Labour's National Insurance Increase Will Hit Millions

Darling announced a further 0.5% increase in National Insurance contributions in the Pre-Budget Report today. This will effect everybody earning more than £20,000.

Here's the Conservatives take on the news ...


Nuff said.

JR

Is This Embarrassing?

Yesterday I was a bit board, so I decided to film myself singing along to a karaoke version of I Can Hear The Bells from the musical Hairspray, edited it to clean up the messy start and end (me lining up the camera, and so on) and uploaded it to YouTube!

What were you thinking? You might ask and you're probably right, but nevertheless here it is for your viewing enjoyment.


So, is it embarrassing?

JR

£600m to be Cut from Higher Education Budget

Alistair Darling didn't announce it in his speech for the Pre-Budget Report today, but hidden away on page 110 of the written report is a cut of £600 million from the Higher Education budget. Of course it doesn't detail which area of HE will feel the pinch the most, but what is certain is that Labour is cutting funding for skills in a recession.

Nobody is saying that public spending cuts aren't required - after all the government's own figures suggest that the national debt will peak at just under 80% of GDP - but there are areas that shouldn't be cut in the current economic climate and instead be ring-fenced, such as education and the NHS.

Isn't it worrying that there is a lot of the PBR that Darling failed to tell the house about the cuts in public spending (which are necessary), but instead chose to hide them away in a 200+ page book.

This wasn't a Pre-Budget Report, it was a Pre-Election Report.

JR

UPDATE: The quote from page 110 of the PBR is as follows;

£600 million from higher education budgets from a combination of changes to student support within existing arrangements; efficiency savings and prioritisation across universities; some switching of modes of study in higher education; and reductions in budgets that do not support student participation.

Work out what that means if you can.

There's A Magical Place

Toys Я Us are the same age as me (25 next year) and have recently relaunched their advert on TV. This is a very sensible move in the current economic climate, TV advertising spaces are cheaper than ever and we're just on the prelude to Christmas.

It's evident that Toys Я Us have spent as little money as necessary on the campaign as they have recycled their advert of 20 years ago, albeit with the animation updated for widescreen telly, the sound track digitally remastered, and a new endboard with the current logo (which you'll notice is different from the logo at the beginning of the advert).

This is, of course, a master stroke. People of my age, and a bit older, will now have kids of their own that will be expecting some sort of toys in their presents on Christmas Day. The advert is pretty good for Children, but as a double whammy the parents will remember the advert from first time around and therefore fall under its spell once more.

It's a great advert, and I'm glad it's back on our screens. Here it is ...



There's millions, says Geoffrey, all under one roof. It's called Toys Я Us, Toys Я Us, Toys Я Us.

JR

Manchester and Salford PPCs Selected

This afternoon, Conservative PPCs were selected for the parlimentrary seats in Manchester and Salford. I'm pleased to announce that the following people won the nominations;

• Salford & Eccles: Matthew Sephton
• Blackley & Broughton: James Edsberg
  
• Wythenshawe & Sale East: Janet Clowes
  
• Manchester Central: Suhail Rahuja
  
• Manchester Gorton: Caroline Healy
  
• Manchester Withington: Chris Green

Good luck to them all for the general election.

JR

Lammy Backs "Barmy" Student Civic Service Proposals

David Lammy, the universities minister, has called for Labour’s election manifesto to feature a plan for hiking loan repayments by former students to fund a national civic service organisation.

The extra charge could amount to more than £600 a year for students with current average debts of £25,000.

Not only that, but students would be forced to complete community service as part of their course.

NUS President Wes Streeting said:

Astonishingly, David Lammy has consistently refused to give his position on whether top up fees should rise because he doesn’t want to 'pre-empt the forthcoming review' – yet he sees fit to pre-empt the review in order to back these barmy proposals.

It is outrageous for David Lammy to back these proposals, which would essentially force students to pay to be punished. Voluntary community service of all kinds is a tremendous and socially valuable thing for students and graduates to do, but compulsory community service is a criminal penalty.

Under the Demos plan, published today, all young people would have to carry out civic service such as helping in a school, working on local environmental projects or serving as a police community support officer.

Unemployed 18-24 year-olds could continue to claim benefits while working in the scheme and university students would be required to carry out 100 hours as part of their courses.

Young people not attending university but taking part in the scheme would be entitled to grants and loans similar to those offered to students.

The cost would be covered by introducing a 2.5% real interest rate on student loan repayments, compared with the zero that is currently charged. This could mean extra payments of more than £600 a year by students with debts of £25,000 and would generate £1.32 billion a year, according to the researchers.

David Lammy, What Were You Thinking?

JR

I've Gone Red

Don't worry, it's for World AIDS Day ... I haven't joined the Labour Party.

As part of SHAG (Sexual Health Awareness and Guidance) Week, MMUnion is supporting World AIDS Day.

World AIDS Day is about raising money, increasing awareness, fighting prejudice and improving education. The World AIDS Day theme for 2009 is 'Universal Access and Human Rights'. World AIDS Day is important in reminding people that HIV has not gone away, and that there are many things still to be done.

According to UNAIDS estimates, there are now 33.4 million people living with HIV, including 2.1 million children. During 2008 some 2.7 million people became newly infected with the virus and an estimated 2 million people died from AIDS. Around half of all people who become infected with HIV do so before they are 25 and are killed by AIDS before they are 35.

The vast majority of people with HIV and AIDS live in lower- and middle-income countries. But HIV today is a threat to men, women and children on all continents around the world.

The Red Ribbon is the international symbol of support for people living with HIV. Wearing a red ribbon is a great way to raise awareness about HIV as well as to break down stigma and prejudice.

Red ribbons will be available from the students' union until stocks last!

JR